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1994-05-09
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<text>
<title>
Russia Seen as Disquieting in East Europe
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Foreign Broadcast Information Service, December 22, 1993
Russia Seen as Disquieting in East Europe
</hdr>
<body>
<p>[Report by Georgiy Bovt: "European Security and Russia. State
of Minds in Former USSR Inspires Neighbors With Worry]
</p>
<p> [Text] The outcome of the December elections has raised
many questions about the "state of minds in Russia," and the
questions are likely to worsen relations between Moscow and the
East Europe countries considerably. For Moscow's neighbors, the
elections results have confirmed their earlier vague fears that
despite the USSR's disintegration, the threat from the East has
not disappeared as far as they are concerned. It is precisely
this conclusion that has been arrived at by the authors of an
international research project "Security for Europe: Moods of
the Public and Political Options" presented on 17 December at the
Russian-American Information Press Center. Special fears are
being raised in Europe by Russo-Ukrainian relations, to which
the authors of the study point as being the main potential source
of tensions up to the point of armed conflicts.
</p>
<p> Studies of public opinion on European security were
conducted from early in 1992 and up to December of 1993 in the
Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Ukraine, and
Russia at the initiative of the Center for the Development of
Foreign Policy at Brown University in the United States. The
main conclusion: Europeans are confident of the absence of a
military threat to them today. They see the West as a guarantee
against a possible threat from the East in the future (even
before the Russian elections, 58 percent of Czechs, 40 percent
of Hungarians, and almost the same number of Poles pinned their
hopes on NATO in this connection while the number of those
sharing this view was growing). In the Czech Republic, Germany,
Hungary, and Poland people are generally much more worried than
their eastern neighbors precisely by the external than by the
internal factors that constitute a threat to their national
security. Alongside a military threat, East Europeans fear
ecological disasters, in particular at nuclear electric power
stations, immigration from the former USSR, as well as the rise
of the "international mafia."
</p>
<p> As for the majority of people in Russia and Ukraine, they
believe that a much greater threat to their national security
emanates from internal factors: At least as recently as six
months ago, this was believed by 55 percent of people in Russia
(against 20 percent of those having a fear of the "abroad"), and
40 percent of Ukrainians (against 27 percent). In the meantime,
experts point out that the number of those who would like to
have their countries turned into "beleaguered fortresses" may
grow considerably. In Russia's case this would mean a bigger
electoral support for the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and
for the Communist Party.
</p>
<p> In Eastern Europe they believe that security in the region
depends on relations between Moscow and Kiev. This would have
appeared absurd only a short time ago to both the Russians and
Ukrainians. But disturbing tendencies have emerged of late in
public opinion: In Ukraine there is a dramatically growing
number of advocates of keeping the nuclear weapons. In 1992,
they numbered 13 percent (with 78 advocating unconditional
disarmament). By the middle of 1993 as many as 36 percent did
not want to part with the missiles, with a further 41 percent
clamoring for security guarantees from Russia in payment for
disarmament. Only 8 percent were in favor of the unconditional
"denuclearization" of Ukraine. At the same time, 31 percent of
Ukrainians fear "Russia's imperial ambitions."
</p>
<p> As for Russia, its neighbors' fears are raised by the fact
that the number of people in Russia thinking that parts of the
neighbor countries are in fact Russian soil has grown from 22
percent to 36 percent in the past two years. Today as little as
5 percent of people in Russia think that Crimea should remain
part of Ukraine (48 percent unambiguously support the view that
Crimea is a part of Russia). True, some optimism is inspired by
the fact that most people in Russia and Ukraine are still
inclined to see tensions in relations between the two countries
as being artificially created by politicians who are using the
"nationality card" to divert the masses of people primarily from
the economic plight.
</p>
<p> The experts of eight countries think that the solution of
the European security problem is on the whole in a blind alley
today. Not the least of which is owing to the fact that while a
post-communist mentality in the former USSR is yet to take its
final shape, it is showing a number of dangerous tendencies in
its development. Should these tendencies prevail, Europe will be
threatened with going back to being split into hostile blocs.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>